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Press ReleaseJun | 3 | 2020
Alcohol-related liver disease is currently the most common reason for liver transplantation in the United States. In recent years, high-risk drinking of alcohol—defined as exceeding daily drinking limits (more than 4 or 5 standard drinks for women and men, respectively) at least weekly for a whole year—has increased in nearly all sociodemographic groups, especially in women.
A new analysis by researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School and Georgia Tech indicates that cases of alcohol-related liver disease will rise dramatically in the coming years without drastic steps to reduce high-risk drinking rates.
To project the impact of alcohol-related liver disease over the next two decades, the team developed a model of drinking patterns and alcohol-related liver disease in individuals born in 1900 to 2012 in the United States, with projections up to 2040. The model relied on data from multiple sources: the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, the US National Death Index, the National Vital Statistics System and numerous published studies. The model was validated in that it closely reproduced the trends in deaths due to alcohol-related liver disease that were observed from 2005 to 2018.
Jagpreet Chhatwal, PhDOur study underscores the need to bring alcohol-related disease to the forefront of policy discussions and identify effective policies to reduce high-risk drinking in the U.S.
In the Lancet Public Health analysis, future trends in alcohol-related liver disease were modelled under three potential scenarios based on the level of interventions to address high-risk drinking:
The analysis also projected that in comparison with status quo, decreasing the high-risk drinking rates by 3.5% per year could prevent alcohol-related liver cancer and decompensated cirrhosis (a form of advanced liver disease) by 30% from 2019 to 2040.
“Our study underscores the need to bring alcohol-related disease to the forefront of policy discussions and identify effective policies to reduce high-risk drinking in the U.S.,” said senior author Jagpreet Chhatwal, PhD, a senior scientist at the MGH Institute for Technology Assessment and an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School.
Lead author Jovan Julien, MS, a PhD student at Georgia Tech, noted that the impact of high-risk drinking takes years to observe. “Our model highlights the long-term risk, especially for younger generations whose drinking continues to outpace older generations,” he said. “Given the practical infeasibility of clinical trials to study long-term effects of increased alcohol consumption, data-driven modeling studies such as ours are valuable for understanding the implications of high-risk drinking and making informed policy decisions,” added co-author Turgay Ayer, PhD, MSc, an associate professor at Georgia Tech.
Paper Cited: Julien J, Ayer T, Bethea ED, Tapper EB, Chhatwal J (2020) Projected prevalence and mortality associated with alcohol-related liver disease in the USA, 2019-40: a modelling study Lancet Public Health
Funding Information: American Cancer Society Research Scholar and the Robert Wood Johnson Health Policy Research Fellowship
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Clinical trial results point to a potentially effective home-based intervention to help prevent cognitive decline.
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